EU What are your thoughts? - The Book-keepers Forum (UK)

abacus12345 · Guru

EU What are your thoughts?

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

OUT.

All of the in arguments seem to be relying on poorly constructed scare mongering by those who fear that they won't have cushy jobs in Brussels to retire to.

I have clients merrily doing business with the USA and China seemingly without issue yet doing business within the EU seems a nightmare of red tape so what was the point in it?

When two of our top five trade partners are not even in the EU (America is #1 and China is #3) doesn't that undermine all of the trade arguements?

And as for being fined billions last year because the UK was recovering... Which of course damaged the recovery.

You just couldn't make that up!

And what about the Single shared European Payments platform where the EU has been trying to transfer the financial systems of the UK to Germany?

The EU as an idea was supposed to be about member states becoming stronger as part of a tight knit club, not one state benefitting by transferring the profitable parts of another.

To my mind the UK is stronger out than in (and didn't even mention immigration in that).

Leger · Master Book-keeper

abacus12345 wrote:
I'm trying to gauge people opinions on what you believe will be the ramifications for businesses?
Trading with Europe possibly costing more? This is one of the things that I need to have more info on, although I think big business (in general) is in favour of staying in
Have you decided yourselves which way you'll vote? I'm not asking for your vote answer.
I'm 70% decided but need more information on the ramifications
Do you believe there is an equal amount of information for those on both the leave / stay camps to make an informed decision?
It's going to be very much a propaganda exercise on both sides. Most people will be swayed by the propaganda so it'll be a case of those who shout the loudest. The odds at the moment are 67% in favour of remaining in but that's out of kilter with social media where the majority want out.
At present I'm firmly in the undecided brigade. I see advantages to both remain and stay, and of course disadvantages to both.
To be honest I can see little advantage for staying in, but I'm open to persuasion once I've looked more in to the disadvantages of leaving.
I do think it is sometimes a case of 'better the devil the know' I'm not keen on uncertain situations.
I do fear that the majority of the electorate will vote to leave, based purely on the immigration issues we have. I myself believe that is an extremely poor reason to vote to leave.
I completely agree, and from the social media I've read, this is the main reason for those wanting to leave (It's not one of mine) A quick survey on the comments of a facebook posting the other day, from the "staying in" campaign, resulted in 17 to leave and 3 to stay in

abacus12345 · Guru

Interesting points Shaun.

If we leave, where does this leave VAT? On European and domestic sales? A renamed version for us maybe?

abacus12345 · Guru

Hi John

Yes I believe that the vast majority of our warehouse / factory admin workers see it as their main reason to leave the EU.

It's a pity that we are not able to get more of what we want whilst being a member, yet I guess we can not have our cake and eat it!

I just hope that we are provided with an equal measure of truths for both staying and going

Leger · Master Book-keeper

abacus12345 wrote:
I just hope that we are provided with an equal measure of truths for both staying and going

The whole campaign will be full of half truths and mistruths, so if a particular subject catches my eye, I will investigate further. One of the things I pride myself on is checking out the facts to a story before accepting it's true.

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

abacus12345 wrote:
Hi John

Yes I believe that the vast majority of our warehouse / factory admin workers see it as their main reason to leave the EU.

Where was that little nugget from? I think great care should be taken here. There are a lot of intelligent people who happen to work in such jobs who give full consideration to a variety of aspects which require debating rather than just the immigration issue. I've heard more on the immigration debate in person from the supposed middle classes, but it's best to keep on point rather than making sweeping generalisations and feeding the propaganda machine.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Well said Joanne,

the immigration issue is like complaining about the icing where the whole cake is rotten.

There is a risk that the in campaign may seek to capitalise on the out campaigners being as indicated in this thread perceived as blue collar workers where I am not seeing the battle lines in reality drawn on that basis.

My impression here is that people are either undecided or for out... I have yet to hear anyone sing the praises of being in a united states of Europe.

I was listening to Boris on the news this morning and as he quite rightly stated. Where in anything that the primeminister agreed in Europe is any real legislative power returned to Westminster.

The UK is not a nation that takes well to having its legislation, finances and national identity dictated to it by other countries.

Quite typical of Westminster Mr Johnson was making some valid points where "Call me Dave's" hangers on were attempting to undermine his statements shouting out lines like "Tuck your shirt in Boris".

Personally I would rather have a primeminister with his shirt hanging out who believes in and properly and whole heartedly representes this countries interests before all others.

I do not feel that we have that at the moment.

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

My view - we should never have joined in the first place! So many £££££££££££££ stripped from the UK over the years, as well as powers.

disbelief Tuck your shirt in!!! If only they spent as much time on real issues as this sort of rubbish!!!!!

Oh dont get me started or I will start on the Lib Dem candidate who knocked on my door to see if I had any issues with potholes!!!!!!!!!!

RobH · Expert

REMAIN...well probably....at least I was fairly certain of staying in but to be honest all that posturing by Cameron has actually put me off. He has come back with nothing, if it was something that would make a difference I think he would have called the referendum later to prove that his work was a great coup. But like others have suggested, I feel the whole immigration thing is a red herring perpetuated by the likes of the Daily Mail and is the politics of fear (like Donald Trump). I'm for opening the borders but in a controlled manner so the island doesn't sink. Being born a white male in Britain is like winning the lottery compared to some of those poor souls and when I hear the Ukipers spouting out any olds racist rubbished dressed up in patriotism I feel ashamed that they are British.

I did an economics degree many years ago and what I learned then I feel holds true today....nobody really has the faintest idea. Back in the 80's when I was a student, Keynes was considered old hat and we were suddenly having to embrace the likes of Friedman and monetaryism. One of my lecturers was very excited that he had this 'game for us to play', basically a scenario where we acted as the government to 'cure' certain situations. It was all fed into some computer and you got a percentage grade of which the highest had been obtained by some people from Oxford or Cambridge. I was in a team with the smartest guy in our course who was also a card carrying socialist and he answered everything with old fashioned socialist answers. Result? The highest mark ever given! Nobody has the faintest idea. I went to the bar and bought Marston's Pedigree for 48p a pint..those numbers I understood.

John you mention what will happen with VAT...well it might be a good enough reason to vote out just to make our job easier....

A big worry for me is that if this leads to Boris leading the Tories and the other choice is Jeremy Corbyn I think the whole world will be laughing at us, so we may be better off hiding behind Tusk and Juncker.

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

RobH wrote:

I did an economics degree many years ago and what I learned then I feel holds true today....nobody really has the faintest idea. Back in the 80's when I was a student, Keynes was considered old hat and we were suddenly having to embrace the likes of Friedman and monetaryism. One of my lecturers was very excited that he had this 'game for us to play', basically a scenario where we acted as the government to 'cure' certain situations. It was all fed into some computer and you got a percentage grade of which the highest had been obtained by some people from Oxford or Cambridge. I was in a team with the smartest guy in our course who was also a card carrying socialist and he answered everything with old fashioned socialist answers. Result? The highest mark ever given!

Gosh that takes me back - I was doing my economics modules of the ACIB in the 80s! I actually hated the subject, got in the exam and scribbled parrot fashion for 15 minutes, went a blank for the next 2 1/2 hours and then when it all started to come back to me just scribbled a mound of bullet pointed responses. Still gobsmacked to this day that I passed!!

-- Edited by Cheshire on Wednesday 24th of February 2016 09:56:49 AM

-- Edited by Cheshire on Wednesday 24th of February 2016 11:11:39 AM

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Lol Jo,

all the right letters but mean something comletely different in that order!!!

-- Edited by Shamus on Wednesday 24th of February 2016 11:13:58 AM

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

Shamus wrote:
Lol Jo,
all the right letters but mean something comletely different in that order!!!

-- Edited by Shamus on Wednesday 24th of February 2016 11:14:28 AM

-- Edited by Cheshire on Wednesday 24th of February 2016 11:17:56 AM

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Don't know what you mean Jo!

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

lol, neither do I!!!!

Leger · Master Book-keeper

RobH wrote:
Being born a white male in Britain is like winning the lottery compared to some of those poor souls and when I hear the Ukipers spouting out any olds racist rubbished dressed up in patriotism I feel ashamed that they are British.

Like it or not, immigration is probably the biggest issue for ordinary people, and I agree that UKIP and to a worse degree, Britain First, will feed on that and spread discontent. I am very much an idealist when it comes to immigration, as I believe anyone should live anywhere they want, and it stands to reason that people from poor countries will want to move to more wealthy countries, but I am a lone voice amongst my circle of friends in that respect. I consider myself very fortunate to have been born in this country, despite it's faults.

I went to the bar and bought Marston's Pedigree for 48p a pint..those numbers I understood.

Now you're talking, although it's a few years since it was 48p a pint lol. (1978-80?) Pedigree is probably my second favourite brew, although it's a long time since I had a pint, but my favourite remains Ruddles County, not sure if that's still available or not.

RobH · Expert

1982/83 John...the student bar was subsidised! I'd forgotten all about Ruddles...it did very strange things to a friend of mine, after several pints he would always wake up disorientated and needing the toilet. He would often tell me he would awaken to find his record player covered in wee! He gave up Ruddles and went on to Stella Artois...I doubt things improved!

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Well, so long as he keeps waking up and needing the toilet in the right order thats the main thing!

RobH · Expert

True enough Shaun, but I reckon he may have sorted his life out, I spoke to him recently and he told me was in the process of buying a property in the French Alps, I said 'any room for a visitor' and he told me it sleeps 20! He decided to cash in around £3million of shares. His occupation? Not a banker like you sir....a bloody accountant (and CIMA at that!) Another very close school friend of mine qualified as a chartered accountant and last year he had a million pound bonus. I am definitely the pauper of our gang! But maybe the lesson here is not to ply your trade in practice but do well in industry?! At least I never pee'd on the record player!

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

I know that feeling well enough Rob!

When I worked in the city I got good income but as a consultant with several of the banks rather than as a full time employee with any one of them

In fee income I made more than many of the other guys but of course as an outsider to the bank I was not eligible for any of the bonuses.

I actually became permanent for a while with one bank (not the same one as Jo) and mere days before bonuses were due my entire division was outsourced!

There are times when that side of the fence is awfully tempting again but a combination of the need to work from home, enjoying making a real difference to the SME's that I look after and memories of hours wasted in meetings that had no real purpose keep me on this side of the fence.

Lol on your freinds adventures with the record player.

Best I managed in a slightly anebriated state was falling over a step whilst attempting to read the mind the step sign...

abacus12345 · Guru

Immigration has more of an effect on the working class. Those who earn minimum wage, those who earn under the national average have more competition from workers coming into the country. Same goes to those same people living in, or trying to get themselves into social housing. It's not a generalisation, it's a fact. Immigration does not affect all people equally.

-- Edited by abacus12345 on Wednesday 24th of February 2016 06:09:01 PM

Don Tax · Expert

Democratic deficit. I'd be more inclined if the EU was a full Parliamentary democracy but even the core France, Germany, Benelux countries don't seem ready to take that step; preferring to try and run a currency at arms length.

One of the main arguments Remaniacs make is that we'd still have to implement all the regulations (bendy bananas) without having any input. This might happen with Norway but our economy is ten times the size, and our wishes would be given proportionate consideration and have more say over our own affairs.

In the debate given below, I think Katrina Barysch was perceived to be talking tripe. It's worth finding Part 1 if you've never heard Daniel Hannan speak on this.

www.youtube.com/watch

abacus12345 · Guru

As a consistent supporter of the labour party - make of that what you will. I do fear where the conservative party will take the country should we leave the EU.

What I wasn't a fan of was the worlds press waiting for Boris to make up his mind - Talk about trying to advance ones career.

I think it's fair to say the next leader will be Mr Osborne - that's another story, for another day.

I do stand by my opinion on the theory of immigration, people vote for what affects them.

Now, everybody has an opinion, yet not everybody votes.

There should be restrictions on immigration, restrictions to state benefits also. Being a member of the EU prevents this. However, I'd never advocate a restriction on asylum.

The scare of businesses leaving this country I think is nonsense, yet I like most have no idea how that will play out. To my knowledge no country has ever left the EU to compare any subject matters with.

On security, I see no issues there, we are still part of NATO and a permanent member of the security council.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Greenland... They left the EU.

abacus12345 · Guru

I've got to be honest, I wasn't aware Greenland was ever a member.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Give it a few years and the rest of the EU will be saying the same about us, lol.

abacus12345 · Guru

Quite possibly!

VinceH · Expert

"I do fear where the conservative party will take the country should we leave the EU."

Suffice it to say that we'll have to find and destroy every copy of Orwell's 1984 in order to ensure that Theresa May is unable to use it as an instruction manual for setting up a police state.

To answer one of the original questions, I'm undecided - I see pros and cons for both outcomes. And while the above is obviously a joke, there is a small element of truth behind it, and that element is one of the factors that will help make my final decision.

RobH · Expert

Vince, are you fearing the dystopian state if we stay or if we go?

VinceH · Expert

If we go.

RobH · Expert

God help us if they introduce 'Boris-Speak'!

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

That surely is like saying please someone else look after the UK as we are not capable of looking after ourselves (despite many centuries of evidence to the contrary).

We are a democracy capable of changing our own Government free of the shackles of French politicians assuming parental responsibility to tell English people what they can and cannot do.

They have attempted that many times in the past... Never ended too well for them.

YLB-HO · Guru

I was in, until I started having to deal with VAT MOSS, and now I am OUT.

VAT is killing a lot of EU businesses, as VAT is charged to Customers in the EU. If you don't have a VAT number and you are buying from another EU country you have to pay VAT on the goods or services you buy. This makes buying from another EU country more expensive for the buyer, and a administrative nightmare for the seller.

Of course the EU commission have not had their accounts signed off in 20 years including the most recent accounts. How can they go year after year without getting their accounts signed off...... We could not get away with it in the way they have all these years.

Forget Immigration, that's not the issue - its just the easy one that everyone can understand.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Sad state of affairs today.

The head of the British Chamber of Commerce has been suspended for saying that he believes that we would be better off out than in.

Ian Duncan Smith has voiced concerns about the misinformation, spin, smears, threats and general bullying tactics being employed by the stay in campaign.

I don't hide that I am very much a conservative but I fear that Mr Cameron's argument that we are too weak to stand without Europe completely undermines to my mind the idea that someone who does not believe in Britain should be leading it.

As Mr Duncan Smith said "Why they would seek to present our country, and themselves, as so weak is beyond me".

abacus12345 · Guru

Mr PM needs to be aware of upsetting his own MPs, in particular the 1922 committee Should we leave, I see a no confidence vote in the party. I don't see how he could remain leader. So far this campaign has been so biased.

abacus12345 · Guru

The list of tory MPs who win an election and stay until they lose the next is extremely small. In general the tories see off their own elected leaders -

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

yep, I'm expecting a reservoir dogs scenario after the vote.

On the bright side though, even if they fall appart for a while there is nothing on the other side of the house to challenge them whilst they get their own house sorted out again (I suspect the Mr Corbyn may actually be a secret Conservative who is working dilligently from the inside to continue the good work begun by Mr Brown in ensuring that Labour is completely unellectable).

I fully expect that post EU vote there will be a night of the long knives at Conservative HQ so I wonder on the run up as people sense which way the vote will be going whether we will see mass migrations of MP's swapping camps in order to survive rather than due to any personal belief in their stand points.

abacus12345 · Guru

Indeed. I now think Osborne has no chance of being leader, almost a CC of Cameron now. May should have stuck to her initial, out of EU opinions. Which to me leaves Boris...Yet does he have an agenda of his own? Is he really an OUT man??

abacus12345 · Guru

Express and star (regional rag) conducted a survey. 63% of people who want to leave the EU cited their reason - immigration. 80% of those who voted want out of the EU.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Hi Johnny,

yes, I read that story (it was front cover so I didn't even have to buy it :D).

Same sort of story with South Wales on the news last night. I almost felt sorry for Neil Kinnock trying to convince just one person in the valleys to vote for the in campaign. His arguement was that the Valleys get millions in handouts from the EU but the counter arghuement was that if we didn't have to give them any money in the first place then we wouldn't need them.

For someone who is Welsh himself I really don't think that Mr Kinnock understands at all the inherent pride of the Welsh people (I'm part Welsh so I get it... Also part English, Irish and German).

The main arguement in that one seemed to be why are we giving any money to the EU in the first place. Immigration didn't come into it but the underlying feeling that we are being held back by needing to support other countries did seem to be an underlying theme.

I suspect that story will be repeated in most areas North of Watford gap services.

My sister who lives in France has already received her voting papers. Unsurprisingly it seems that those who do not live in the UK want to vote to keep us in the EU which is possibly why the Government is so eager to get their voting papers to them... I don't see that they do not live here for at least part of the year that they should have a vote at all in this.

After the votes in Germany this week I think that post Merkel (who seems to now be on borrowed time #1) they may be next, or it could be Holland, or Sweden... Basically I think that the EU needs to be not so much worried about our leaving in isolation but rather tha domino effect once less countries are paying into the pot putting increasing burden on those countries that remain to support the weaker economies.... Was that game dominoes or kerplunk that I was thinking of?

#1 I am worried about the rise of what Germany's ill conceived open door policy has nurtured. Some of the mass rallies that I have seen on BBC news could just have easily have been filmed in the 1930's!

abacus12345 · Guru

I certainly agree with the sentiment in regards to the domino effect.

In my opinion we, as a nation are the greatest country within the EU. I'm biased of course.

Do we know how the voting system will work? Will it be a grand total of yes vs no, or on a constituency basis? - I know we aren't voting for MP'S...

I really do see it being a vote to go now. Having said that, the Midlands and Wales, amongst other industrial / mining areas have always had a rough time with the government, so I expect much of the vote to side with leaving. Down south the demographic is different.

I'm not purely saying the entirety of the working class will wish to leave, I'm not saying they lack intelligence either through being blue collar workers - but what I am saying is - families of all generations do not forget the mess certain governments, of all political spectrums have created over time. There are still to this day members of families who do not speak to each other through the days of the coal strikes.

Politicians may forget. People don't.

Folk at the grass roots of society, who obviously make up the majority, are tired of ridiculous, powerful EU laws.

Much of this post hasn't been relevant to the thread, yet the sentiment to trust in the system is. People are tired of the lies and the BS. It's lies, together with broken promises, not just here but across the world.

Imagine if you will Putin on one side, and Trump on the other. Yet even Trump himself isn't the problem, he is a symptom of the system.

-- Edited by abacus12345 on Tuesday 15th of March 2016 09:13:29 PM

Leger · Master Book-keeper

abacus12345 wrote:
Do we know how the voting system will work? Will it be a grand total of yes vs no, or on a constituency basis? - I know we aren't voting for MP'S...

as far as I know it's the overall totals of yes and no. It would be interesting though to see how different area's of the country have voted, once we know the result.

abacus12345 · Guru

For sure.

Time will tell.

Don Tax · Expert

Yes, it should be interesting. If this poll is anything to go by there is a marked difference in the constituent countries of the UK. I believe N. Ireland is even more keen on remaining in the EU.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Interesting map Tim although any foreigner looking at it would I believe see it completely differently to ourselves.

For example, you look at the percentage of green and think this is going to be a close thing but then realise that the bulk of the green of Scotland which skews the map has about two sheep living there where the tiny area in bright red in the centre of the country which is the West Midlands has a greater population alone than the entirety of Scotland including all of their major cities.

Its interesting that the heartland of UKIP votes for the most part are only recognised as mixed where talking to family over in deepest darkest Lincolnshire you would think that if they found anyone pro Europe they would be burned at the stake as a heretic.

Also interesting that area's of Wales shown on the news as being extremely anti Europe are being shown as light green (leaning towards Europe).

There are surprises the other way around as well as I was under the impression that South of London would have been more green than it in fact is. Although, thinking about it that probably is the part of the country most concerned about the immigration issues that Johnny talks about.

abacus12345 · Guru

I remember all the polls from the previous general election. All comes down to who can be bothered to vote. Isn't it usually less than 40 percent of those eligible to vote, actually do?

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

I think thats the principle that Nicola Sturgeon is working to in that the SNP believe that the wrong people voted last time so they're going to keep doing the referendum again and again and again until the Scottish people finally get it right!

abacus12345 · Guru

The people of Scotland decide enough is enough, no more referendums - England then decides she wants to split from Scotland - England holds a referendum people vote to leave - imagine the irony. On a serious note, should we leave the EU, I'm betting she'd use that to force another referendum to get Scotland back into the EU. Elected MPs can be bad enough, as for unelected leaders, well....

-- Edited by abacus12345 on Wednesday 16th of March 2016 03:49:31 PM

VinceH · Expert

It wouldn't be as simple as that though. Obviously, if we leave, Scotland initially leaves with us. Then they'd have to split from us - and then they'd have to *apply* to join the EU. It's not cut and dry - and could be a long process.

It would be interesting to see the outcome if things were to go that way. Would people in the North who felt strongly towards remaining in then consider 'emigrating' to Scotland? I think it's a possibility that some would.

(My comments further up the thread might make you think I'm in the 'In' camp. However, the truth is that I'm mostly undecided, but slightly weighted towards 'in' at the moment. I think there are pros and cons, advantages and disadvantages for both remaining in and getting out of the EU.)

abacus12345 · Guru

I'm guessing to get another referendum she would need to get the green light from the PM. After the last referendum being so close, together with how well the SNP performed in the last general election, I doubt it would be granted again, by the same PM.

That being said, politics is full of draconian rules, so anything is possible.

Wanting to be a part of the EU could be a good enough reason, should we, on the whole, leave.

I think we would do pretty well being out of the EU.

The PM would need to realise that there is more to the UK than London mind, share the wealth around an' al'!

Or is it a case of it being 'better the devil you know?'

One thing I do worry about is the doing away with European human rights act - I do fear how the snoopers charter could snowball into further intrusions in our lives.
Yes, if we have nothing to hide, blah blah blah - yet that isn't really the point is it?