Daily Thought for the day : 2017-06-01 - The Book-keepers Forum (UK)

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Daily Thought for the day : 2017-06-01

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

My response 'Im out' and then I turn my chair round. Oh wait, have I got two TV programmes mixed up?!

Why did you let the cat out of the bag on my niche market gonna sell like hot cakes idea. Whats wrong with lemon flavoured soap dishes - everyone will want them!!! Im going to be a millionaire - can see it now, running down the street as Batman and Robin. Oops Im doing it again arent I?!!

Seriously - hope to drop into this one later but have an all day client meeting, with that interspersed by another client on a conference call - dont you love them when it all goes a bit pear shaped at the same time!

Ive had to let a few down, especially in my past life, for their ridiculous ideas, even probably had a few ridiculous ideas myself (although being risk averse on the old burning cash bit, they didnt get that far).

Leger · Master Book-keeper

Even if there is a market in the gap I still think you can be a success, but this very much depends on the individual(s) running the show, and their entrepreneurial skills, or a usp.

A couple of examples: JML: highly successful but all they do is sell everyday products with a twist. Their USP is in stores advertising the hell out of it with their advertorials. Another is the owner of the Range bargain stores. Highly entrepreneurial but wouldn't know one spreadsheet to another. Loved it when I read that he had bought the entire stock of MFI when it went bust, at no doubt a bargain basement price, and shifted it through his stores. Very much a delboy in his youth, flogging gear from the back of a van, but with a bit of luck and a determination to succeed, became a billionaire.

Joanne, speaking of selling like hot cakes, just thought of a really good usp for you. Free cakes with for every new client. Go girl!!

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

Leger wrote:
Even if there is a market in the gap I still think you can be a success, but this very much depends on the individual(s) running the show, and their entrepreneurial skills, or a usp.
A couple of examples: JML: highly successful but all they do is sell everyday products with a twist. Their USP is in stores advertising the hell out of it with their advertorials. Another is the owner of the Range bargain stores. Highly entrepreneurial but wouldn't know one spreadsheet to another. Loved it when I read that he had bought the entire stock of MFI when it went bust, at no doubt a bargain basement price, and shifted it through his stores. Very much a delboy in his youth, flogging gear from the back of a van, but with a bit of luck and a determination to succeed, became a billionaire.

Joanne, speaking of selling like hot cakes, just thought of a really good usp for you. Free cakes with for every new client. Go girl!!

If only I had time to bake John!!!!!!

Talking of cake lovers....where is Shaun with his daily thoughts for 2nd and 3rd?

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Morning Joanne,

thought for the day pending.... Currently the thought for the day is unpublishable as I've read the enemies manifesto... Page 86 of the labour manifesto is frightening beyond words but now it at least becomes clear how they intend to bleed the nation dry in order to pay for their communist utopia! The new garden tax and increased power to seize private properties (presumably for not paying the new garden tax) tied up in normal socialist flourish.

Anyway, been busy for a few days (the communist manifesto was read whilst hiding from my work on the toilet), fingers crossed I'll catch up with my thought for the day commitment later today :)

Laters.

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

Shamus wrote:
Morning Joanne,

the communist manifesto was read whilst hiding from my work on the toilet

Laters.

TMI! wink

Leger · Master Book-keeper

Shamus wrote:
Page 86 of the labour manifesto is frightening beyond words but now it at least becomes clear how they intend to bleed the nation dry in order to pay for their communist utopia! The new garden tax and increased power to seize private properties (presumably for not paying the new garden tax) tied up in normal socialist flourish.

What new Garden Tax would that be then Shaun? (Goes to page 86 of the Labour Manifesto)

A Labour government will give local government extra funding next year. We will initiate a review into reforming council tax and business rates and consider new options such as a land value tax, to ensure local government has sustainable funding for the long term.

Doesn't sound that frightening to me, and it sounds like Labour will at least look at local Government funding, which has been cut to the bone in recent years.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Leger wrote:
Shamus wrote:
Page 86 of the labour manifesto is frightening beyond words but now it at least becomes clear how they intend to bleed the nation dry in order to pay for their communist utopia! The new garden tax and increased power to seize private properties (presumably for not paying the new garden tax) tied up in normal socialist flourish.
What new Garden Tax would that be then Shaun? (Goes to page 86 of the Labour Manifesto)
A Labour government will give local government extra funding next year. We will initiate a review into reforming council tax and business rates and consider new options such as a land value tax, to ensure local government has sustainable funding for the long term.
Doesn't sound that frightening to me, and it sounds like Labour will at least look at local Government funding, which has been cut to the bone in recent years.

Hi John,

Well, seems that I'm not the only one thats noticed it....

VinceH · Expert

FUD much?

Especially this: "The new garden tax and increased power to seize private properties (presumably for not paying the new garden tax)"

Personally, I would normally vote conservative - but I'd rather poke my eyes out with a pitchfork than risk my vote counting towards the wannabe-Big Brother Sister May. I had my doubts about it at the last general election, simply because she was Home Secretary - but with her as party leader? No way, Jose!

Leger · Master Book-keeper

Shamus wrote:
Hi John,
Well, seems that I'm not the only one thats noticed it....

Hi Shaun

I'm sorry but I have to say that I'm shocked you have fallen for the Tory propaganda. I will declare here and now that I'm a labour supporter, so in that I will admit I have a bias. But (and I heartily suggest everyone do the same) I look at both sides of the argument.

Could you supply me with hard fact that the proposal to look at a land value tax could treble council tax? Do you seriously think that any Government would try to increase council tax from a minimum £20 a week to £60 a week, alienating the very people that have put them into power?

-- Edited by Leger on Monday 5th of June 2017 01:12:48 PM

abacus12345 · Guru

I'm sticking with Labour. I do not believe in Mrs. May. I do not agree with her policies. I do not trust her. Having said that, I can see how people do like her, and loathe Jeremy. Gap is closing.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Leger wrote:
Shamus wrote:
I will declare here and now that I'm a labour supporter, so in that I will admit I have a bias. But (and I heartily suggest everyone do the same) I look at both sides of the argument.

Mmm, the party that gave us tuition fee's, IR35, sold our gold reserves at a giveaway price, left the country in huge debt and with a legacy of unparralleled levels of unemployment.

My father was staunchly labour his whole life and used to make for some interesting debates over Sunday lunch... You could always tell when he was losing the arguement becuse he would revert to "It's not bloody Tory money that put the meal on this table".

The issue is that the socialist mantra is to punish entrepenerial spirit where capitalism encourages it.

Socialism is all about the nanny state where conservatism is about market forces and personal freedom to better one's self.

As a small business owner yourself dependant upon other small business owners do you feel that you will be better off under a socialist or capitalist Government?

The issues over everything currently being underfunded is two fold. Firstly it's attempting to rebalance the books left in such a poor state by the Brown years and secondly it's to curb local Government incompetence and bring them more in line with the private sector. Once fixed things will improve but one cannot keep spending money that they do not have forever. And the way to fix that is not to tax businesses off the highstreet, make employing people too expensive so raising unemployment, and raising taxes on those who through their labours have managed to acquire property. It's by reducing dependancy upon the state by letting people make money and taxing them fairly on their labours.

On the garden and property taxes thing, my council tax is already nearly £3k per year. I live in a nice house on a small estate but it's not a mansion. why would I vote for a party that wants to increase further taxes that are not related to income to pay for things that should come from general taxation?

I am not attempting to alter your opinions which we develop over many years based on our personal journeys. I simply state my own opinions which are staunchly Conservative.

That said, the return to old labour under Corbyn must frighten even the most stalwart of labour voters... First time I voted in 1979 was the last time that old labour was in power. It seems that it's taken the country almost 40 years to forget why the labour party did not become electable again until they became more middle ground under Blaire.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

abacus12345 wrote:
Gap is closing.

Worryingly so. Sterling has already dropped on that fear.

Leger · Master Book-keeper

Shamus wrote:
Leger wrote:
Shamus wrote:
I will declare here and now that I'm a labour supporter, so in that I will admit I have a bias. But (and I heartily suggest everyone do the same) I look at both sides of the argument.
Mmm, the party that gave us tuition fee's, IR35, sold our gold reserves at a giveaway price, left the country in huge debt and with a legacy of unparralleled levels of unemployment.
Are they the tuition fees that tripled under David Cameron's watch?
IR35 fair enough, it was a sledgehammer to crack a nut but since been made much worse. especially earlier this year. It needs scrapping and a complete rethink. I've seen the gold bit bandied around a fair bit so let's look at facts.
Brown sold the gold in 1999 at it's lowest level. Between 1983 and 1999 Gold had gone from approx $450bn down to £256bn, steadily declining over the intervening years to when Brown sold it. Indeed it stayed static over the next two years before steadily rising to about £400bn in 2006. After that it went crazy, but c'mon, Brown never had a crystal ball. The interesting question is, what did he do with the £3.5bn raised from the sale? He invested it in currency. See your reserves dwindling, surely it is better to put that into an investment that potentially brings a better return?
Unparalleled levels of unemployment? Around 5% in 1997 to 5.5% in 2007? After that it went up to 8% because of the recession. I could say what about the tories pushing the unemployment level to over 12% in 1983, but I won't because that was also caused by a recession. Fair play to the tories because it's back down to it's lowest level since 1975, but bolstered imo by the ridiculous hoops unemployed people have to jump through, zero hours contracts, and sanctions at the drop of a hat.
Socialism is all about the nanny state where conservatism is about market forces and personal freedom to better one's self.
I don't have an issue with wealth, but if someone fat gets fatter at the expense of thinner people getting thinner, that's a problem to me. If the fat people shred a little weight without a major impact, which allows the thinner people to add a bit more weight, then to me that's a good result.
As a small business owner yourself dependent upon other small business owners do you feel that you will be better off under a socialist or capitalist Government?
Historically a conservative Government, but costs for the small business have increased dramatically under the last Government, although AE was already in the pipeline. However, it's not just about me, homelessness has increased considerably, food banks have increased considerably, and the gap between rich and poor has increased considerably under the last Government. Should we have that much poverty in a country that is the 6th or 7th richest in the world?
The issues over everything currently being underfunded is two fold. Firstly it's attempting to rebalance the books left in such a poor state by the Brown years
Shaun. do you actually believe that? When labour came into power in 1997 the national debt was £352bn. Massive investment was put into hospitals and schools and although the debt was reduced in the first two years, the debt increased to £520bn at the start of the global crash, because of that investment. The national debt then increased to £910bn in 2010, partly because we bailed the banks out (I would have let them go bust but that's a different story) and partly to reduced tax income because of people being unemployed
and secondly it's to curb local Government incompetence and bring them more in line with the private sector.
I'm with you on that, with the caveat that it should be an arms length not for profit organisations. East Coast Rail Franchise being a classic example of how that could work. I would imagine that any waste in local Government has gone now though.
Once fixed things will improve but one cannot keep spending money that they do not have forever. And the way to fix that is not to tax businesses off the highstreet, make employing people too expensive so raising unemployment, and raising taxes on those who through their labours have managed to acquire property. It's by reducing dependency upon the state by letting people make money and taxing them fairly on their labours.
On taxation is there anything you disagree with on Labour's proposals. No one will pay more income tax unless they're earning more than 80k You may disagree with the increase in Corporation Tax, but even that will be less than it was in 2010. Assuming the small companies rate goes back to 20/21% I think that's a fair price to pay for the benefits to the Country as a whole.
On the garden and property taxes thing, my council tax is already nearly £3k per year. I live in a nice house on a small estate but it's not a mansion. why would I vote for a party that wants to increase further taxes that are not related to income to pay for things that should come from general taxation?
You didn't answer my question, do you seriously think Labour would increase your council tax from £60 a week to £180 a week? There would be absolute uproar and it wouldn't happen, but no-one in Labour have actually said that they will treble council tax, that is Tory scare tactics.
I am not attempting to alter your opinions which we develop over many years based on our personal journeys. I simply state my own opinions which are staunchly Conservative.
And I respect that, what I disagree with is misinformation or propaganda.
That said, the return to old labour under Corbyn must frighten even the most stalwart of labour voters.
I've seen a lot of misinformation about JC, I don't agree with everything he says, but there's a lot of sense in investment for the future, half a million new social housing over the next year being my favourite, which will reduce both the strain on the housing benefit budget, and reduce the ridiculous levels of rent at the moment. That was my opinion in 2010 when David Cameron became PM, and announced austerity, and is still my opinion today. This will bring much needed construction employment as well.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Hi John,

afraid no time to answer all of your points at the moment but lets just for a moment stick with the issue of Council Tax and your lack of belief in labour robbing property owners.

I keep way too much documentation myself and can state that in the 13 years between labour coming to power and losing it (1997-2010) my council tax rose by 132% (actually 132.3148%). In the 7 years of a Conservative Government (2010-2017) it has risen by 9% (Actually 9.097933%).

So yes, based on the basis of their track record I believe that the labour party will drip feed further extortionate council tax rises... It won't come all at once but in bits with the excuse of needig to fund this or that. Basically following the principle of boiling a live frog. (You drop a frog in boiling water it will imediately jump out. You put a frog in cold water and slowly raise it to the same temperature it will stay there).

So it is with the electorate. Drip feed the unacceptable and people just accept it.

Also, as for the statistics over unemployment. Labour changed the way that the unemployed are counted and you are also quoting percentages based upon different underlying number of people (58m in 1997, 61m in 2007 (and there's currently 65m)). A far better barometer of how bad things are is how many new bookkeepers there are as when there are no jobs people are convinced by some training companies and professional bodies that joining this profession is fast and easy, there are millions of small businesses crying out for their services and only a handful of bookkeepers able to service them.

When I joined this site it was at the back end of the labour Government and people were joining here asking where all of the clients that were supposed to be beating their doors down were. It seemed that there were more bookkeepers in the market than firms to service and the only people making money were the training companies. Thats what I see as the true barometer of the country.

Take a look at many of the posts from 2010 just before the conservatives took power and you see a very different country to the one that we have today.

Similar with the Gold. Gordon brown was told before he sold it not to do it. He refused to commission proper risk analysis or listen to those advising against such action (Confessions of a Eurosceptic, David Heathcoat-Amory, pp141). If you have a house and house prices are depressed you don't sell. Like houses Gold may dip but it is a finite resource and will rise again over time. Same principle with shares. Your shares may dip but that is not real until the moment that you sell them. The gold should not have been sold in the first place but of course now would be an excellent time to buy it all back again... If you can find anyone willing to sell that amount of the stuff!

On the housing. Remember that we are a small country and only have so much land. There are only so many brown field sites and when you concrete over a field and you cannot use it to feed people. If you expect to depend upon import to survive then you are starting from a poor balance of trade. 10% more people in the last 20 years is ridiculous growth based primarily on an unsustainable open door policy which can only be limited by housing stock. You cannot just keep building more and more houses for everyone who wants to live here.

Yes, we need to build more and better housing stock but half a million more homes!!!! Of course, increased council tax from that many homes built so quickly would of course help fund labours manifesto.

Wrote more than I intended to and now I'm late. I've not reviewed the above so may be some errors in it or bits that don't read correctly. Think that you'll get the overall gist though.

Amanda · Expert

I with you on this one Shaun!

My parents years ago were staunch Labour, I however have never voted Labour and hopefully never will. I am a blue and don't mind admitting it. My son is studying Politics at Uni and is a very staunch Tory and that is without mine or his dad's input, he has chosen his own path and is very passionate about it!

The small business will be hit under Labour, in fact loads of people will, even the poor, but unfortunately they can't see it all.

The NHS is a classic, having worked for them in the past I can honestly say that whoever gets in the NHS problem will NOT be solved due to over population in the UK. The NHS was set up in the 1940's for the British people, unfortunately over they years people have taken the piss out of it and turn up from other countries and have their babies with us, when the NHS send them a bill for the time they have spent they say they can't pay. There was one in the papers about 6 months ago, a foreign lady had twins and they were very ill when born, spent ages in hospital, then she went home to her country and openly admitted she couldn't pay her bill which was tens of thousands! That money will never be recovered, and that is just one case, that are probably loads! I could tell you a few inside stories too, but I won't as it is confidential!

Teresa May is the the only person who can get us out of this bloody mess with the Brexit.

Regarding small businesses at the moment that are loads of them and plenty of work for us bookkeepers, I for one am always turning work away as I can't cope with anymore, but if Labour get in I think some small businesses will be dwindling, the market will slow up and then that will have a big effect on the economy altogether. It really wasn't very good the last time they were in!

Dear Jeremy reminds me of Michael Foot, what a joke he was!!! That just about says it all.

My parents have said they are not voting this time, she can't stand dear old Jeremy, even she has said what a waste of space he is!

Leger · Master Book-keeper

Shaun, sorry mate. I started intending to just add a bit of comment, and got carried away!

Why did council tax rise so rapidly, was it cuts from Government spending or just councils putting the tax up every year? I've just checked my area and it went up 93% in the same period and according to my figures your area went up 95% for your particular band. That's roughly 7.5% increase year on year. With inflation around 2.5% when Labour came to power that's quite steep.

Amanda, you mention the NHS, I would be interested in your thoughts on the Naylor report.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Hi John,

no probs, politics is one of those things where two people can look at exactly the same situation but see it completely differently and it can get quite heated when people want the other person to see it from the same perspective and cannot understand why they cannot.

End of the day we're both grown up's and can disagree without falling out over it :)

we're a fair bit out on our figures (95% vs 132%). I know that my percentages are right as I took the figures directly from council tax bills. However, I assume that there is some variance down to local adjustments as the two levels of local council also take their bits for local projects (as do the police, the fire service, etc.). Overall though you can see why when we are talking about those sort of levels of non inflation related increase I am so sceptical of where a labour government might attempt to find the money to pay for it's promises.

edited because site slowed down to a crawl (I think my PC, not the site was to blame) and wanted to post rather than risk losing what I had already written.

-- Edited by Shamus on Tuesday 6th of June 2017 10:14:35 PM

bk · Senior Member

A client told me yesterday that one of her staff was voting for JC as her wage would increase to £10 an hour. Her response was no it won't, you'll be unemployed, I can't afford to pay those wages.

Small businesses and our clients will struggle under Labour. They offer the world but offer no true way of sustaining it. We've all had to save in our lives for things we want and a better way. That's all the Tories are doing. The frightening idea is that we could end up with a coalition again, which would just be like kids in the playground. In with Joanne and Shaun on this one.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

Morning Debbie,

its the old magic money tree syndrome that both sides of the house seem to have adopted in that they make financial promises for others to keep. Pretty much buying votes of the many by increasing the burden on the few with the only financial beneficiary being the Government as the worker gets the same but its source is moved from taxation based to what amounts to a second tax on the business.

I say both sides but where the Conservatives consider the burden upon business I am not sure that Labour do as they seem to regard business of all sizes of nothing more than a cash cow that just keeps on giving no matter how much you take from it.

I am reminded of quote from Tiberius. "It is the duty of a good shepherd to shear his sheep, not to skin them".

VinceH · Expert

"A client told me yesterday that one of her staff was voting for JC as her wage would increase to £10 an hour. Her response was no it won't, you'll be unemployed, I can't afford to pay those wages."

I hope he was careful in how he phrased that, because if it was badly phrased it could so easily be misconstrued at an attempt to coerce someone into not voting a particular way. Don't forget that we're hearing this third hand, and you heard it second hand - so what was said was said may not actually be what was said. In that order. With those exact words.

Shaun: Earlier you made a comment about the value of sterling.

I keep xe.com open in a tab on my phone (one of the very few sites I keep open) and watch the price of sterling. When May announced the general election (that she previously said wouldn't happen) the value of sterling gained a few points - literally as soon as the news was out. My interpretation of this is the lack of faith in her, and the prospect of someone else replacing her.

I'll make a small prediction: If she gets another term as PM, when it becomes clear that's going to happen, sterling will fall again. I suspect of Corbyn gets to replace her it'll stay about where it is rather than anything else. (And I can't see the Lib Dems getting in, but in the remote likelihood they do, it'll go up slightly).

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

VinceH wrote:
I keep xe.com open in a tab on my phone (one of the very few sites I keep open) and watch the price of sterling. When May announced the general election (that she previously said wouldn't happen) the value of sterling gained a few points - literally as soon as the news was out. My interpretation of this is the lack of faith in her, and the prospect of someone else replacing her.
I'll make a small prediction: If she gets another term as PM, when it becomes clear that's going to happen, sterling will fall again. I suspect of Corbyn gets to replace her it'll stay about where it is rather than anything else. (And I can't see the Lib Dems getting in, but in the remote likelihood they do, it'll go up slightly).

Your just joking, right? You don't really believe what you just wrote there!

The rise in sterling was based on her only having a majority of six and the expectation on announcment of an elecion was that it would be a bluewash across the board due to the general belief at that time that Corbyn was unelectable.

An awful lot of spin and man management later and there is a very vague posibility of a shock result and as labour points in the opinion polls rise, so by direct correlation sterling falls on fear of a labour government.

Arbitrage is not as simple as that though in that rates now and even on Friday are also affected by forward contracts and hedges on expectation of the direction that sterling will take. It could be a month, maybe more, once the fortunes have been made or lost, before the true direction of sterling becomes apparent.

very funny on the lib dems, I cant see them getting a seat let alone into power (And the same with UKIP).

Leger · Master Book-keeper

bk wrote:
A client told me yesterday that one of her staff was voting for JC as her wage would increase to £10 an hour. Her response was no it won't, you'll be unemployed, I can't afford to pay those wages.

I agree that it's too much too quick, but all employers will be in the same boat. Will your client be able to afford £9 an hour, which is what it's going to be under the Conservatives?

I remember when the minimum wage first came in, the doomsdayers said businesses will go bust, people will lose their jobs. It never happened. What's actually happened is that, over time, the minimum wage has become the standard wage for many people, rather than it being a minimum. By contrast, the living wage is £8.75, which is the amount suggested as the starting point to maintain a reasonable standard of living.

Leger · Master Book-keeper

Shamus wrote:
VinceH wrote:
I keep xe.com open in a tab on my phone (one of the very few sites I keep open) and watch the price of sterling. When May announced the general election (that she previously said wouldn't happen) the value of sterling gained a few points - literally as soon as the news was out. My interpretation of this is the lack of faith in her, and the prospect of someone else replacing her.
I'll make a small prediction: If she gets another term as PM, when it becomes clear that's going to happen, sterling will fall again. I suspect of Corbyn gets to replace her it'll stay about where it is rather than anything else. (And I can't see the Lib Dems getting in, but in the remote likelihood they do, it'll go up slightly).
Your just joking, right? You don't really believe what you just wrote there!
The rise in sterling was based on her only having a majority of six and the expectation on announcment of an elecion was that it would be a bluewash across the board due to the general belief at that time that Corbyn was unelectable.
An awful lot of spin and man management later and there is a very vague posibility of a shock result and as labour points in the opinion polls rise, so by direct correlation sterling falls on fear of a labour government.
Arbitrage is not as simple as that though in that rates now and even on Friday are also affected by forward contracts and hedges on expectation of the direction that sterling will take. It could be a month, maybe more, once the fortunes have been made or lost, before the true direction of sterling becomes apparent.
very funny on the lib dems, I cant see them getting a seat let alone into power (And the same with UKIP).

Hi Shaun

Lib Dems will get around 20 seats imo. UKIP may get one seat (Nuttall) but I woudn't bank on it. Agree with you on the above regarding sterling. I think Theresa May was wrong to call an election and has shot herself in the foot by doing so, she's going to need at least a 30 majority to achieve the aim she set out to do, which was to dramatically increaase her majority to give her a firmer footing with Brexit. She could have also handled her campaign a lot better instead of hiding away.

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

bk wrote:
In with Joanne and Shaun on this one.

lol. I didnt even say anything Debbie ( I know - thats unusual for me). I dont 'do' politics on social media.

Although have to say that my Mum has lobbied for the biggest threat to the NHS to be sorted! Thats the debt owed in the billions to be collected from foreigners who come over to use it. There is a mechanism for collecting such debt from them personally or via their respective governments, but the NHS and Government have been weak in using the process and have written off millions each year. Some to do with not wanting to upset the apple cart with trade deals, others because there are just not enough people strong enough to follow through (cross party!). There is of course a simple resolution - lets face it if you turn up in a hospital in some foerign parts you can be dying and if you havent got your credit card or insurance plan in your sticky mits then they just leave you to die. Here we are too soft!

bk · Senior Member

Hi Joanne
Sorry for misquoti g you. I've not got used to the new logos yet. Must have thought someone else was you. It was the end of a very long day. Serves me right for posting in bed

I like the quote Shaun. Totally agree with your spin on things. Let's hope tomorrow doesn't end in turmoil.

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

bk wrote:
Hi Joanne
Sorry for misquoti g you. I've not got used to the new logos yet. Must have thought someone else was you. It was the end of a very long day. Serves me right for posting in bed

I like the quote Shaun. Totally agree with your spin on things. Let's hope tomorrow doesn't end in turmoil.

No worries Debbie! You will be just getting used to the logos when they all change again. Great to see that you have joined in biggrin , overall disappointing take up on Shaun's great suggestion!

bk · Senior Member

Bringing back Shaun's idea - I heard a story today.

A lady bought a ring at a car boot for £10 around 15 years ago, all along believing it was costume jewellery. It turned out to be a large Victorian diamond which was valued at between £250,000 and £300,000.

It was sold at auction this week for £540,000.

What a bargain

Cheshire · Master Book-keeper

Wow, Debbie - lucky lady.

Ive had the complete opposit. I have a diamond merchant on my books and an Accountant called in with a huge flashy looking engagement ring. My client took one look and said - thats a fake! He never pulls his punches! Turns out her hubby got it from his Mother in Law to give to her soon to be favourite Daughter in law and it was indeed a fake!!!! She seemed to take it very well (!) but oh can you imagine the conversation when she got home that night!!

VinceH · Expert

"Your just joking, right? You don't really believe what you just wrote there!

The rise in sterling was based on her only having a majority of six and the expectation on announcment of an elecion was that it would be a bluewash across the board due to the general belief at that time that Corbyn was unelectable."

All I can say to that assessment of why sterling dropped is:

You're just joking, right? You don't really believe what you just wrote there!

And in terms of my prediction: I didn't consider the possibility of a hung outcome - but we've finished up with Supreme Commander Servalan May back in number ten, and the pound at a slightly lower rate than it was before. It didn't happen the way I thought, but the end result is the same.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

VinceH wrote:
"Your just joking, right? You don't really believe what you just wrote there!

The rise in sterling was based on her only having a majority of six and the expectation on announcment of an elecion was that it would be a bluewash across the board due to the general belief at that time that Corbyn was unelectable."
All I can say to that assessment of why sterling dropped is:
You're just joking, right? You don't really believe what you just wrote there!

Thats News of the World type quoting.

You missed this bit :

Arbitrage is not as simple as that though in that rates now and even on Friday are also affected by forward contracts and hedges on expectation of the direction that sterling will take. It could be a month, maybe more, once the fortunes have been made or lost, before the true direction of sterling becomes apparent.

VinceH · Expert

Perhaps, but it's a long way outside my area of knowledge, so all I can do is look at the facts that I see before me. In this case: I predicted that with May in number 10 again, the pound would be lower - and the fact is that May is in number 10 again, and the pound is lower.

Meanwhile, I'll change my profile pic to the alternative flag I knocked together to reflect Supreme Commander Servalan May getting another run as PM.

Shamus · Forum Moderator & Expert

But sterling would be lower because the conservatives dont have a clear majority. Not because they are in power but because they don't have enough of it.

The only option that would have made stronger sterling would have been the originally expected bluewash. Any other option is perceived by the markets as bad for Brexit, the economy and the country.However, as indicated earlier. it's too early yet to know where sterling will finally settle as I'm pretty sure that not all ppositions will be closed yet.